The GLP-1 Revolution
Market dynamics, pipeline threats, and the next phase of competition in obesity and Type 2 diabetes. Built from SEC filings, FDA / EMA decisions, NICE, NEJM, IDA Ireland.
A small selection of the questions our clients have asked us — answered in public so prospective clients can evaluate the standard of our analytic work.
Our debut sample brief — written to the standard we apply to every client engagement. 28 pages, every quantitative claim primary-sourced.
Market dynamics, pipeline threats, and the next phase of competition in obesity and Type 2 diabetes. Built from SEC filings, FDA / EMA decisions, NICE, NEJM, IDA Ireland.
Lilly Kinsale (Co. Cork) and Limerick now produce tirzepatide; Novo Nordisk’s €432m Athlone expansion (announced 2 March 2026) is the second-largest non-US GLP-1 capacity bet of 2026.
From Amgen MariTide to Viking VK2735 — probability-adjusted threat scoring against the duopoly. Pfizer has left the field; retatrutide tops the table.
Three scenarios for what happens when the 1 July 2026 – 31 December 2027 demonstration ends — and the revenue sensitivity for sponsors across each.
3.4 million NHS-England eligible patients across a 90-day / 180-day / 3-year rollout. What this means for forecasting UK net price corridor.
Cash-pay corridor of €120–€475/month. Health Minister Carroll MacNeill’s end-2025 reimbursement signal — and what slippage would mean for franchise valuation.
Tirzepatide −20.2% vs semaglutide −13.7% at 72 weeks (NEJM). The commercial implication: a generation of sponsors must re-test franchise economics.
−28.7% mean weight loss at 12 mg over 68 weeks plus WOMAC pain reductions in osteoarthritis. The triple agonist economics question.
The deal is a fill-finish capacity bet, not an obesity bet. Implications for second-source qualification for emerging biotech sponsors.
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